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Writer's pictureJulia Anusiak

Is it Realistic for Developing States to Grow Without Reliance on Fossil Fuels?

INTRODUCTION


The above thesis question will further aim to address the burden of change that is posed on underdeveloped countries, with India as a case study. Highlighting the lack of support given by MEDC’s, as well as blame-shifting, lack of accountability and expectance to ‘learn from past mistakes’, regarding the use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions.


LITERATURE REVIEW


A plethora of literature discusses the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, such as that of Idundun et. al, (2019), which discusses the reliance of the Scottish public sector on fossil fuels, or Dancer (2018), which discusses the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels in Hawaii, with studies even describing the reliance as a ‘fossil-fuel addiction’ (Tollefson, 2018). Morris adds that reliance on fossil fuels does not only result in negative environmental impacts but also on the state’s economy as “mineral-related revenues are subject to wide swings resulting from fluctuations in energy markets” (Morris, 2016:1). Tollefson found that despite the global shift towards the use of renewable energy and the ever-plummeting prices of wind turbines or solar panels, the world continues to be dependent on fossil fuels, further claiming that shifts towards renewables are insufficient (Tollefson, 2018). Moreover, Forbes adds that the complete phasing out of fossil fuels is “utterly and destructively impractical” (Forbes, 2021).


The International Peace Institute (2009) recognises the relationship between underdevelopment, resource scarcity and resultant environmental degradation, highlighting that the combination also challenges global geopolitics and the global economic landscape as it threatens international security (IPI, 2009). Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change as “climate change aggravates the effects of population growth, poverty, and rapid urbanisation” (Ludwig et. al., 2007:3), putting a strain on already scarce global resources (IPI, 2009). Additionally, the 2010 OECD report states that “climate change will increasingly affect basic elements of life for people around the world: water availability, food production, health and the environment” (OECD, 2010:66). Finally, Ludwig et. al. (2007) claim that the above factors will further drive the cycle of poverty, making it almost impossible for developing countries to grow.


Delink et al. found that “the question of how to share the burdens of adaptation costs is an urgent international policy question” (Delink et. al., 2009:411). Ludwig et. al add that “the developed world should reduce their emissions to minimise future climate change” (Ludwig et. al., 2007:3), by doing so, this would give developing countries a chance to join in and contribute proportionately (Ludwig et. al., 2007). Studies also claim that “if there are any individuals who can be pointed to as the most responsible for the harms of climate change, it would seem to be the CEOs of fossil fuel companies” (Gunderson and Fyock, 2021:1), as a 2017 report found that over 70% of emissions can be traced back to just 100 companies (CDP, 2017). On the contrary, Timperley highlights that it may not only be just the fossil fuel companies, but also rich countries, politicians, rich people and sometimes individuals. Further noting that “you can allocate these emissions to the people using the generators, but it is hard to say they are to blame for them” (Timperley, 2020), which only highlights the complexity of this topic.


One limitation of literature within this field is that not many academic sources look at the unjust pressure and lack of support that poorer countries face as they prioritise their survival over ‘environmental responsibility’. As quoting Sunita Narain, a Delhi-based environmentalist: “We [India] care about climate change. But the fact is we are a country where energy access is as much a challenge as climate change. We need to make sure every Indian has access to energy” (Narain, 2016). Instead, most literature focuses solely on how climate change will affect the poorer countries, suggesting alternatives for their development, rather than looking at the root of why they need to use fossil fuels in the first place. Furthermore, another limitation is the lack of consideration of colonial and underdeveloped countries within academia which looks at development policies and theories. Frank (1966) supports this argument, claiming that “available theory fails to reflect the past of the under-developed part of the world entirely, and reflects the past of the world as a whole only in part” (Frank, 1966: 2), thus resulting in disproportionate environmental policies.


INDIA: BRIEF HISTORICAL CONTEXT


Frank (1966) explains that we cannot form appropriate development theories and policies for underdeveloped countries without first understanding how their socio-economic history has played a role in underdevelopment in the first place (Frank, 1966).


Gregory et. al. define colonialism as a relationship of domination between an indigenous minority and coloniser majority, where colonisers are often “convinced of their own superiority, pursue their own interests, and exercise power through a mixture of coercion, persuasion, conflict and collaboration” (Gregory et. al., 2009: 95). India was subject to colonial presence throughout history numerous times, from states such as Denmark, France, Portugal, and most notably, Britain. The British presence in India began forming in the 1700s, and British rule was established in 1858. The British Indian Empire covered an area over twelve times bigger than the size of the United Kingdom and Ireland (Smith, 1882). By the late 1800s, frustration grew and nationalist movements such as the Muslim League or the Indian National Congress were established, wishing for an independent India (EASD, Unknown Date). After WW1, Britain’s attitude towards India changed in response to the ever-growing nationalist agenda, and Britain eventually began giving India more freedom to prevent political conflict and violence. Despite this, the nationalist movement grew and so did tensions between Muslims and Hindus. This led to the removal of British rule in India in 1947 and the subsequent partition of India into two separate and self-ruling countries, India, and Pakistan (National Archives, 2021).


The colonisation of India brought benefits in the form of imports of modern goods, transportation, as well as increased standards of living and global protection as one of Britain’s territories. Nevertheless, the negative impacts outweighed the advantages as Britain ultimately had full control of the Indian government, economy, and trade (EASD, Unknown Date), with two-thirds of India administered by English civil and military officials (Smith, 1882). It is also worth noting that nations such as Britain were able to industrialise directly due to Indian deindustrialisation. At the time of the British colonisation of India, India was one of the richest and most industrially developed states in the world. Britain imposed unfair tariffs and taxes on India’s manufacturing of steel and textiles, and further made India a captive market, selling its goods to India to fund the British Industrial Revolution and gain global power (Jain, 2021).


INDIA: DEPENDENCE ON COAL AND CONSEQUENT CARBON EMISSIONS


India has a surplus of coal reserves; in 2019, it was the second-largest producer of thermal coal (Philalay et. al., 2019), producing 3,536 TWh coal-derived energy, which was more than the entirety of the European Union, which produced only 1,560 TWh in contrast (Ritchie and Roser, 2020). Coal, according to Morris (2016), is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and whilst of course, an increase in the use of coal increases the country’s emissions, most Indian’s are more concerned with the country’s ability to provide energy, heat and feed the nation, and not its sustainability (Narain, 2016). According to Philalay, the year 2017 saw 168 million Indians without access to electricity (Philalay et. al., 2019). It is also important to note that no country has lifted itself out of poverty without reliance on fossil fuels, and thus a consequent increase in carbon emissions (Slater, 2020). The use of fossil fuels, specifically coal, plays a huge importance in India’s development. When a country is struggling to provide power to its nation, it will no doubt use whatever is readily accessible to do so. Ergo, India is yet to pledge to phase out coal power (Ritchie and Roser, 2020). Interestingly, instead, the biggest contributor to India’s coal industry, state-owned company Coal India Ltd., aims to increase their domestic coal production to 1 billion tonnes by 2025–26 (Philalay et. al., 2019). Figure 1 shows just how dependent on fossil fuels India is, as even at its lowest in 1978, India relied on fossil fuels for 85.39% of primary energy (Ritchie and Roser, 2020).



Figure 1. Graph showing India's share of primary energy from fossil fuels between 1965 and 2019, in %.

By looking at Figure 2, we can see that between 1965 and 2019, India increased its fossil fuel consumption by 8,050 TWh, China by 32,041 TWh and the US by 7,962 TWh. Of course, whilst India’s consumption is nowhere near that of China, it has only been on the rise since the 1980s, and without appropriate action, India may follow in the footsteps of China (Ritchie and Roser, 2020).


Figure 2. Graph showing fossil fuel consumption of India, China, and the US between 1965 and 2019, in TWh.

INDIA: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


Most of India lies in the tropics of southern Asia, making it a tropical ecozone (Morgan, 2011). Sachs (2001) suggest that “economic development in tropical ecozones would benefit from a concerted international effort to develop health and agricultural technologies specific to the needs of the tropical economies” (Sachs, 2001:2). Whilst this may not directly relate to the thesis question, it highlights that tropical ecozones, specifically in poorer countries, require external help to grow, as they are faced with difficulties that may not be present in western countries. The improvement of agricultural technologies could be considered a form of climate adaptation countries such as India, which experience the Monsoon. The Monsoon plays a huge part in agriculture within India, as crops such as rice and tea, rely on the annual rainfall to fill wells for the remainder of the year. Consequently, when the Monsoon is interrupted and is late or weak, the economy suffers, and India relies on imports for food supply. Equally, when the Monsoon is heavy, it can cause severe flooding and mudslides (Rutledge et. al., 2011). For example, in 2021 so far, over 5 million hectares of crops were lost due to heavy monsoon-related rainfalls (Kapil, 2021).


Several studies have found that the increase in greenhouse gases and consequent warming of the atmosphere will eventually increase precipitation levels, severely affecting summer monsoon seasons and resulting in more dangerous and unpredictable torrential rain (Schwartz, 2021). New research from Clemens et. al. (2021) predicts that the “South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases” (Clemens et. al., 2021:1), and further, the severity of India’s monsoon rains is expected to rise 5% for every 1°C increase in global temperature (Dunne, 2021). Whereas, looking at global predictions, precipitation is expected to increase by 1-3% for every degree of warming in comparison (UCAR, 2021). Whilst, in theory, the rising global temperatures will have the same effects on MEDC’s like the US, i.e., larger precipitation events, heatwaves and flooding (Wuebbles et.al., 2017), the US has the money and resources to deal with the consequences of these events. Thus, climate change effects affect countries that contribute significantly fewer emissions the most, but not in the sense of higher severity of effects, but rather the inability of the country to do something about it. This highlights that despite India’s late start to emission contribution, it will still be severely affected by the effects of climate change.



DISCUSSION: SHOULD IT BE DONE? CAN IT BE DONE?


The question of whether India should be asked to reduce their emissions as a developing country, when the developed west has taken advantage of the benefits associated with the use of fossil fuels for decades, is being asked more frequently (Vaidyanathan, 2021). The issue of abdicating environmental or climate responsibilities to aid economic growth as the last resort is more common in poorer countries like India as often the only types of profitable economic activity possible are reliant on mass amounts of energy. Not to mention, India has an abundance of coal, which further poses the question, why should they not utilise it, seeing as most MEDCs developed the same way? This is not taking into consideration the energy that is needed for sustaining the nation itself, for which fossil fuels can be used also. Consequently, countries such as India must make a choice on whether they will heat, feed, and support their nation, or buy renewables and reduce their emissions to comply with climate goals and policies (Grossman and Kreuger, 1995). Furthermore, the coal industry also provides employment; as many as 4 million people are employed in India’s coal industry, with some experts even claiming that the industry is a lifeline for local communities, being the sole driving force of their economy (Vaidyanathan, 2020).


It may be argued that the stem of this issue is connected to the way that the priorities of LEDC's will vary hugely than that of MEDC’s. A state battling to take care of its nation will ultimately fall back on the use of fossil fuels as it cannot justify spending money on renewables when the same money, could provide much more using fossil fuels. On the other hand, a MEDC which has adequate administrations, may decide not to, and focus on capitalist growth instead (Grossman and Kreuger, 1995). Consequently, Ludwig et. al. (2007) claim that instead of forcing developing countries to employ mitigation strategies, the EU should stimulate adaptation instead, leaving the more expensive mitigation methods to the already developed countries. Further, the transition from coal in India should not be rushed as it needs very careful consideration and planning, to ensure that those communities which rely on it most are not abandoned (Vaidyanathan, 2020).


Narain highlights that often, NGOs reiterate that they wish that LEDC’s would not make the same mistakes as MEDC’s, i.e., becoming fossil-fuel-hungry. However, India cannot afford to use renewables such as solar, and countries like the US can, yet they still rely hugely on fossil fuels (Narain, 2016). On the other hand, experts claim that India should in fact increase its ambitions as it has a chance to ‘jump ahead’ to the use of renewables, given the already existing technologies. Furthermore, India has increased its solar-energy capacity more than 12 times the capacity in 2014, along with new initiatives which aim to save electricity (Slater, 2020). The Indian government initiatives and incentives have led to a boom in the solar-power industry, and the government further aims to install 100 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2022, which is almost double that of the US (Tollefson, 2018).


It is not impossible for other developing countries to steer away from a reliance on fossil fuels, and instead, push for the use of renewables. For example, the region of sub-Saharan Africa can meet up to 67% of its energy needs by 2030 as countries within Africa are “increasing embracing renewables as an enabler to leapfrog to sustainable energy future” (Obonyo, 202). Countries such as Egypt or Kenya have displayed a commitment to the use of renewables, with smaller countries like Rwanda following in suit, setting ambitious renewable energy targets. This effort seems to be paying off, as in the last few years, Africa’s solar energy market has experienced a growth of over 1.8W in solar renewables, further, solar is now the cheapest form of electricity generation in Africa, thus making them not only beneficial environmentally, but also economically (Obonyo, 2021).



CONCLUSION


It must be noted that the point of this thesis question is not to per se, pardon LEDC’s from ever adapting to climate change policies and obeying them, but rather to shift the focus of the blame from them onto the rich countries. As for answering the thesis question, ‘To what extent is it realistic for developing states to grow without reliance on fossil fuels?’, considering both arguments, I believe that it is not realistic to expect developing states to grow without reliance on fossil fuels. Whilst attempts can be made to shift towards renewable energy, it feels unjust to hold LEDC’s at a different pedestal to that of already developed countries decades ago. Understandably, rich countries do not want poor countries to follow suit and make the same mistakes, but without appropriate funding, aid, and resources, it is unrealistic to expect developing countries to make such changes overnight. Despite that, I feel that it is impossible to fully answer the thesis question without further, more in-depth, and comparative research.


 

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Figure 1. Ritchie, H., and Roser, M., 2020. ‘Share of primary energy from fossil fuels’ in ‘Fossil Fuels’. Our World In Data. [online]. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels (Accessed on 22/12/21).


Figure 2. Ritchie, H., and Roser, M., 2020. ‘Fossil fuel consumption’ in ‘Fossil Fuels’. Our World In Data. [online]. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels (Accessed on 22/12/21).


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