Introduction
Over the last few decades, the impending doom of the "water crisis" and "water wars" have become an increasing concern to water professionals, political scientists, and media discourses. The dramatic statements of "water crisis" and "water wars" could become a realistic future, stemming from the simplistic belief that the availability of water across the world is limited and everlasting in terms of human use (Biswas, et al., 2019). This coupled with the drastic increase of population levels, urbanisation and industrial activities, helps to predict that the world is facing a "water crisis" at an unprecedented level, which could bring countries to war, fighting over the natural resource of water. Astoundingly, this belief was captured by Ismail Serageldin in 1995, the former World Bank Vice-President, predicting that, "the wars of the next century will be about water" (Risi, 2019, p.11). This bold assertion reflects the growing concern of "water wars" in some of the most politically contentious zones in the world. Historically, wars and resources are inextricably linked; Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and Gulf War (1990-1991) were conflicts over the resource of oil during the late 20th century. With this in mind, the inevitability of "water wars" will become a key element of many global conflicts in the 21st century (Gleick, 1993; Starr, 1991).
The article will discuss academic discourses on water scarcity and war. In light of this, the primary focus will be on the region of Israel, Palestine and Jordan by looking at the geopolitical relationship of the international sharing of the River Jordan.
Literature Review
Many scholars reiterate the importance of water and its increasing scarcity around the world, conveying that disagreements over shared water resources will be a contributing factor of conflict in the twenty-first century (Cooley, 1984; Homer-Dixon, 1991, 1994, 1999). In light of this, transboundary water resources are constant sources of tension and competition in many regions around the world facing the threat of water scarcity. Critchley and Terriff (1993, p. 332), argue that resource competition and conflict are inextricably linked as conflict arises from resources, "becoming increasingly scarce in a region". As a result, water scarcity exacerbates tension within society, ultimately, creating an unstable, conflict-prone space. In accordance with Laurence Smith, in "Rivers of Power" (2020), waterways act as political borders, highlighting the contentious political issue of river-sharing. Shockingly, the World Bank reveals more than 245 river basins are shared by more than two countries (Salman, et al., 1998). In general, river-sharing is a politically sensitive issue as countries will have to work together to find an agreement over sharing water. At present, over three hundred river- sharing agreements have been drawn up in the industrialised, modern world to share and address the management of the international river basin (Rogers, 1993). The international disputes over river sharing are more complex in weaker states as it becomes a battle of power, for instance, the Euphrates-Tigris Basin shared between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Since the 1960s, unilateral plans to divert the flow of the river, coupled with political tensions between these countries, have strained relations in the basin. The disputes over the Euphrates- Tigris Basin has prevented these states from effectively co-managing the basin. In 2008, the three governments decided to work together to find an agreement over sharing this basin, however, these negotiations have yet to result in a peaceful, formal agreement (Warner, 2012).
The impending conflict scenario in the Middle East has brought the issue of water to "high politics", with media discourses and politicians around the world, concluding that water scarcity is replacing oil as a source of conflict (Swain, 2001). However, the rhetoric of "water wars" have not yet become a reality. A critical perspective from Toset and Gleditsch in "Conflict and Shared Rivers" (1998), generally, accept the probability that armed conflicts over the scarcity of water will happen, nonetheless, the argumentative purpose of this paper further denies its inevitability. Additionally, international cooperation is twice as likely as conflict over water, with the incidence of violence being used is extremely rare (Yoffe, et al., 2003). A comprehensive review by David Katz in "Hydro-political hyperbole" (2011), criticises the potential for any "water wars". He argues any water-related conflict documented in the last century happened, "no later than 1970, none were all-out wars, and in none was water the central cause of conflict" (Katz, 2011, p.15). Since the 1970s, "water wars" have been predicted, for instance, the former Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, insinuated that the threat of water scarcity could "take Egypt to war again" (Selby, 2006). Consequently, water scarcity has increased around the world, but these predicted "water wars" have yet to happen. So why do water wars and water scarcity discourses persist?
Israel and the Potential 'Water War'
It comes as no shock that "water wars" have been taking place in the Middle East over the last century and even to this present day. In the past, when water resources in this region run scarce, it directly exacerbates tensions between the five political subdivisions all dependent upon the Jordan basin: Israel, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. To explore this in detail, the theory of war has become an influential topic that Clausewitz explained in, "The Theory of War", defining war as political tool that is, "the continuation of politics by other means" (1832). Clausewitz's theory details that war is politics pursued by other means. This is evident by the political rivalry between Israel and Palestine, battling over territorial rights of the River Jordan. Consequently, from 1964 to 1967, several conflicts between Israel and its Arab neighbours, coined the phrase 'war of water', a battle of the domineering control of the River Jordan (Gat, 2003). The violent attacks from the Israelis started by carrying out a series of airstrikes to secure the water supply from Golan Heights and Mt. Herman, ultimately, doubting the water supply in this state. The historical epoch is filled with conflict over water that mirrors the ethnonationalist conflict between the Zionists (Israel’s national ideology) and Palestinian nationalism (Thuillier, 2019). In this context, history is likely to “repeat itself”, with a high probability that future wars in this region will be over water.
In an area where water is seen as a source of "liquid gold", Israel and the surrounding riparian states heavily rely on hydraulic engineering to generate enough water supply for agriculture, industrial and domestic usages (Durst, 2020). Consequently, water scarcity can create hope by "triggering technological and diplomatic innovations, not wars" (Wickens, 1998). In accordance with Karl Wittfogel's "Oriental Despotism" (1957), reflects the conflicting relationship between water and politics. In his main thesis of "hydraulic societies", Wittfogel ascertains there is a direct correlation between authoritarian regimes and societies that rely on hydraulic engineering for survival. Historically, hydraulic engineering can be seen as a symbol of political power, especially, in the region of the Middle East, with sovereign leaders fighting over absolute control of water. However, there is still hope for peace between Israel and Jordan. In 2013, the two riparian states most dependent on the river, Israel and Jordan, began to work together on hydraulic engineering projects to generate enough water supply to survive (Weinthal, et al., 2020). The Red Sea-Dead Sea project was designed to save the shrinking Dead Sea whilst increasing the water supply to the river Jordan. In this case, Ide and Detges (2018) research on "International Water Cooperation and Environmental Peace- making", argues the importance of international cooperation as it has the potential to improve relations between rival states, for instance, Israel and Jordan striving for peace
What would happen if a country's water supply was cut off? In David Wallace-Well's shocking essay "The Uninhabitable Earth" (2017), he cleverly paints a realistic image of a future filled with political chaos and resource wars. It is this image that haunts the present situation in Gaza, with Israel continuously cutting off the water supply, threatening more than 2 million Palestinians. In the Palestinian context, "Intifadah" attempts to "shake off" the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (Zarza, 2019). During these "tremors" of conflict, the powerful presence of the Israeli authorities destroyed and cut off the water supply from the pipes to Gaza as an instrument of social control (United Nations, 1992). Additionally, strict curfews enforced among the Palestinians in Gaza often lead to restricted water supply for domestic and agricultural purposes. A critical analysis from Abraham Bell (a professor of law), interprets Israel's territorial sovereignty over the Gaza Strip does not violate international law. He argues there is nothing in international law that forbids Israel from cutting off the water supply to Gaza (Bell, et al., 2016). However, many scholars were against Bell’s statement, concluding that Israel is obliged to maintain water supply to the Gaza Strip to meet the basic demands of the civilian population under international humanitarian law (Farer, 1985; Reus-Smit & Snidal, 2010). In light of this, Gaza has become the largest "open-air prison", that only has access to water resources when Israel allows it (Høvring, 2018). The sovereign rule of Israel is threatening and exacerbating the "water crisis" in Gaza, becoming, "the most horrifying case" of water scarcity in the notoriously water-scarce Middle East (Durst, 2020b). Conversely, Israel did not face any restrictions on water supply or demand by extracting from the same river source. These inequalities have created a persistent source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians, creating a potential "water war" in the not-so-distant future.
Conclusion
Israel's environmental policy is "Janus-faced"; promoting the rise of hydraulic technologies to tackle the issue of water scarcity, yet depriving thousands of Palestinians of water resources (Agha, 2019). The potential of "water wars" is definitely a reality for the Middle East. In this context, Israel's historical epoch is filled with "tremors" of conflict over water agreements in the surrounding riparian states. The unfair extraction of the Gaza strip and the river Jordan serves to benefit the state of Israel, leaving the Palestinians to suffer. This could become a potential "water war" in the future. However, there is still hope as hydraulic innovations help to effectively co- managing the basin, for instance, Jordan and Israel working together to improve water security.
Bibliography
Agha, Z. (2019). Israel’s problematic role in perpetuating water insecurity for Palestine. Available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/israel-s-problematic-role-in- perpetuating-water-insecurity-for-palestine/ (Accessed on 4th December 2020).
Bell, A. and Kontorovich, E. (2016). Palestine, Uti Possidetis Juris, And The Borders Of Israel. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2745094
(Accessed 9th December 2020).
Biswas, A. and Tortajada, C. (2019) Water crisis and water wars: myths and realities, Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07900627.2019.1636502 (Accessed: 30th November 2020).
Clausewitz, C. (1832) The Theory on War, 3rd edn., London: Cornwall University Library Cooley, J. K. (1984). The war over water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3-26.
Critchley, W. H., & Terriff, T. (1993). Environment and security. In R. Shultz, R. Godson, & T. Greenwood (Eds.), Security studies for the 1990’s. Washington, D.C.: Brassey’s.
2020)
Durst, P. (2020) In Israel, it’s all about water, Available at: https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/in-israel-it-s-all-about-water (Accessed: 30th November 2020)
Durst, P. (2020) In Israel, it’s all about water, Available at: https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/in-israel-it-s-all-about-water (Accessed: 30th November)
Farer, T. (1985). Political and Economic Coercion in Contemporary International Law. The American Journal of International Law, vol. 79, no. 2, pp. 405–413. JSTOR, Available at: www.jstor.org/stable/2201710 (Accessed 9th December 2020).
Gat, M. (2003) Britain and the Conflict in the Middle East, 1964-1967: The Coming of the Six-Day War, 2nd edn., London: Greenwood Publishing Group,
Gleick, P. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society 6(3): 331-340.
Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1991). On the threshold: environmental changes as causes of acute conflict. International Security,16, 76-116.
Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1994). Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases. International Security,19, 5-40.
Homer-Dixon, T. F. (1999). Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Høvring, R. (2018) Gaza: The world’s largest open-air prison, Available at: https://www.nrc.no/news/2018/april/gaza-the-worlds-largest-open-air-prison/ (Accessed: 9th December 2020).
Ide, T. and Detges, A. (2018). International water cooperation and environmental peace- making. Global Environmental Politics 18(4): 63-84.
Katz, D. (2011). Hydro-political hyperbole: examining incentives for overemphasizing the
risks of water wars. Global Environmental Politics 11(1): 12-35.
Reus-Smit, C. and Snidal, D. (2010) The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, 1st edn., New York: Oxford University Press.
Risi, L (2019) Beyond Water Wars, Available at: https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/water-in-a-world-of-conflict/beyond-water-wars/ (Accessed: 30th November 2020).
Rogers, P. (1993). The value of cooperation in resolving international river basin disputes. Cambridge, USA: Natural Resources, Vol 17, Issue 2, 117-131.
Salman, M. A. and Boisson de Chazournes, L. (1998) International Watercourses: Enhancing Cooperation and Managing Conflict - Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar: 414, 1st edn., New York: World Bank
Selby, J. (2006). The Geopolitics of Water in the Middle East: fantasises and realities. Third
World Quarterly, 26(2), 329-349.
Smith, L. (2020) Rivers of Power: How a Natural Force Raised Kingdoms, Destroyed Civilizations, and Shapes Our World, 1st edn., New York: Penguin Classics.
Starr, J. (1991). Water wars. Foreign Policy 82(1): 17-36.
Swain, A (2001). Water wars: Fact or Fiction? Futures, 33 (8-9), 769-781. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00018-0 (Accessed on: 12th December 2020)
Thuillier, M. (2019) History is repeating itself — right before our eyes, Available at: https://dailynorthwestern.com/2019/05/03/opinion/thuillier-history-is-repeating-itself-right- before-our-eyes/ (Accessed: 9th December 2020).
Toset HW, Gleditsch N. (1998). Conflict and shared rivers. In: Paper presented at the Third European International Relations Conference and Joint Meeting with the International Studies Association.
United Nations, (1992) Committee on the Exercise of the Unalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, Water Resources of the Occupied Palestinian Territory, New York: United Nations, 52-53.
Wallace-Wells, D. (2017). The Uninhabitable Earth, New York Times. Available at:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html
(Accessed: 30th November 2020).
Warner, J. (2012). The struggle over Turkey’s Ilısu Dam: domestic and international security linkages. Int Environ Agreements 12, 231–250
Weinthal, E. and Zawahri, N. 2020. Don’t Politicize Water. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/17/water-cooperation-middle-east/ (Accessed: 30th November 2020).
Wickens, G.E. (1998). Arid and Semi-arid Environments of the World. In: Ecophysiology of Economic Plants in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands. Adaptions of Deserts Organisms. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Yoffe, S.B.; Wolf, A.T. and Giordano, M. (2003). Conflict and Cooperation over International freshwater resources: indicators of basins at risk. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39(5): 1109-1126.
Zarza, L. (2019) A war over water, a not-so-distant dystopian future, Available at:https://smartwatermagazine.com/blogs/laura-f-zarza/war-over-water-not-distant-dystopian- future (Accessed: 30th November 2020).
